Tsinghua university professor YuanGang Ming is pessimism, and his long-term trends to Japanese economy made pessimistic predictions. He said Japan's economy in the 90 s bubble is Japan turning point, from now on, the Japanese economy had "lost 20 years," and the earthquake to hit Japan again, Japan's economy will not recover after a setback, into a long slump, and Japan will become second-rate countries. He also believes that Japan's political economy system lagged behind, Japan's economic growth that have.
Interestingly, YuanGang Ming in the professor told me that he had a Tokyo university scholar brought to the meeting, and to the judge to Japan told the scholars, the scholars said immediately, professor yuan had better not published this point of view, if cheap new era hats spread this point of view, will attack the Japanese state of mind, this time the Japanese up and down the country together, to prepare to restore Japan.
But YuanGang Ming or one-way conversation express for the Japanese economic and social development of the bleak view.
I thought YuanGang Ming professor views too pessimistic. I talked about this in the BBS's point of view, the Japanese economy in the short term was hit hard, the reconstruction process is very difficult, but Japan may face change turning point.
I think, several issues deserving of attention.
First, the Japanese economy reconstruction difficult not small. Japan is still not announced reconstruction budget, but to Japan's current financial situation look, it is hard to start the Japanese government financial support the policy. Reason is that Japan national and enterprise to continue large purchases of Japan's national debt, and at the same time, the bank of Japan is also unable to continue to push "national debt is changed" policy, because it can lead to the yen credit crisis. Although the bank of Japan to market a large injection monetary, financial market stability, but whether the government leading financial support, or private investment, are not easy thing, Japan reconstruction needs through a difficult process.
Second, the international industrial division or profound changes. The change comes from Japanese enterprise itself and international industry to Japan to doubt the security environment. This may have two results, a is an international enterprise scattered intermediate products purchasing destination, avoid too focus on Japan. In view of the Japanese products short-term non-substitutability, this process if produce, take a little longer. Another result is Japan enterprise outsourcing core divisions, abandon its long-term believes in "YanHang model", the core technology and factory transferred to Asia and other regions. This, of course, can lead to Japan's economy KongXinHua, but from the perspective of survival, don't rule out the possibility. Outsourcing is the individual rationality, KongXinHua is individual character of the collective irrational to reason.
Thirdly, the Japanese government foreign and international economic strategy or change. After an earthquake in Japan can improve and neighboring countries relationship, existence variables. Japan's security is concerned, the probability of disaster than war possibility, therefore, the Japanese government or to re-examine the foreign policy, and Asian countries develop relationships, and may the initiative to promote regional economic integration, and for Japan's economy, and even the Japanese nation living space.
Fourth, Japan's long-term stagnation or develop new driving force of social reform. After the disaster, Japan will to political system and economic system in China,Discount sunglasses and promote the reform. The pain of the disaster and the future problems will be down to the Japanese social interest differences, which helps to form the reform consensus. At the same time, to deal with the lack of electricity nuclear crisis, and not long ago Toyota motor events, show that Japanese enterprise already non-traditional Japanese enterprise, maximize shareholder rights is a Japanese enterprise culture core, this although performance for the social responsibility of the enterprise is reduced, but it also means that the Japanese enterprise has strong expansion and earnings desire, this is Japan enterprise life exists.
In my opinion, Japan will experience low development, but Japan not become the second-rate country and its in east Asia region economic dominance or will shift to China, but China in the international division of labor field to get Japan that core position is also difficult, because China in technology innovation and intellectual property rights protection are very enough, private investment is restrained, it will restrict China enterprise international competitiveness.
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