Terminalcables

Whether the economy is worse than in 2008, most people give the affirmative answer. Some of the media research: HSBC PMI for PMI11 month numerical 48, for 32 months since the lowest that downside risks increase. HSBC PMI in September 2005 since released, only in September 2008 to March 2009 less than 49. Do you think that the slowdown in the economy?

Wealth is one of the business survey, 55.02% of investors think economic downturn, worse than 2008; 32.99% of investors think that if the economic downturn, not worse than in 2008; 11.99% of investors said to economic downturn than 2008 whether more bad says to not be clear about.

Other survey confirms at least in one thing, namely the economy is weakening, and, PMI already very intuitive shows. Are you for the current economy has three years ago the worse than expected, we have the following several factors, let people more optimistic up.

First, the real estate market lost the initiative. In view of the previous two years house prices outbreak, China property market and land market, has lost move STH space. That is, the top of the property market stage, has come. After ten years in prime time, has played only a don't fall "myth", but this excessive overdraw, to the current economic brings a lot of problems. This snapback hats and 2008 years of property prices than and land price are not the same. Besides, many years of experience in the YueDiao regulation up, probably in the government before they get fixed. In some ways, the economy lost a most important motive force of the machine and may be more serious than in 2008. Including the local finance and urban development power, and related more than 60 industry, all may be affected. Of course, there is also needed to see the other side, do not have empty market eventually more destructive, real estate also is such. House prices and land price too high, it will squeeze other consumption, increase the life and production cost. If comprehensive opinion, though adjustment is necessary, but the housing downturn in economic enormous influence.

Second, money than the hair three years ago serious. If from the overall level, the hair growth is money last year by two times of economic growth, excessive monetary super hair, leading to the economic resources of serious mismatch, prices soaring once, the people's cost of living increase sharply, not production go down. In order to curb high inflation, was forced to take the deflating monetary policy, led to the crash of private capital.

The facts tell us, financial never is on, only as solid economic provide service tool, if financial capital dominant, and the end, the United States and Japan is the big unemployment and industrial economic recession, and finally to the remedy is worse than the printed notes of the economy. A large number of normal credit can't get loans, and a lot of credit for usury need not deal, the deformity of the lending mode, overall, our economic structure is the deformity credit root. If you don't solve this problem, we of small and medium-sized enterprises may really it collapsed, and promote 30 years of migrant workers and small and medium-sized enterprise miracle, in fact loss very big, go against the New Era Hats economic miracle continues to continue. Maybe the whole financial system, would really have collapsed. Recently the financial department's leaders have substitution, may have a new way of thinking. Overall speaking, currency such as tiger, easy to print is not easy to take back, put out easy, recycling up will get into muscle, but not back will be desperately. This is the current monetary policy problem, also is the plight of structural malformations caused by credit.

The third, from peripheral economic situation terms, although not as dramatic changes than in 2008, but, from the effect and influence surface.the speaking, much more influence. From last year, global into the high risk society, governments have to face a mounting debt, unemployment high messy period, in protest, defeat rolling. Crisis, is not terrible, but terrible is no deal with tools, now the global government, against the crisis of bank note is printed. Power can through the global currency status on purchasing power of diluted, but, for some of the inflation is not the international currency, will only to domestic and such. Therefore, we see, for the past three years, governments is basically do two things: printed notes and debt, the two actually are printed notes socialist. The Chinese economy is very adverse, because in 2008, China has a policy tools to save the market and save the economy, now these policy tools have exhausted the overdraft, unless the measures to lower taxes, and some space. Other such as monetary policy and fiscal policy tools, has lost flexibility and deal with sex. Recent people expect the credit policy easing, however, from the current opinion, directional loose may be the future policy expediency.

Finally, with the stock market downturn, to people's expectations is a big influence. All said the stock market is economic barometer, although these years, which confirm the stock market and can't completely is economic barometer, but the reasons for analysis, we'll be very clear to see these inconsistencies, mainly is our stock market is not effective market, is a policy city, speculative popular, various kinds of interests transmission obviously violates basic standards for financial market, recent stock market management for the rectification of the large scale, it is to restore reflect the basic functions of the economy.