In 2010, the exchange rate movement features include: first, developed countries between monetary exchange rate fluctuatio, for example in the first half of 2010 euro against the depreciation of the dollar, and the second half of 2010 the euro's rise against the dollar; Second, the developed countries trying to push to emerging market countries currency exchange rate, but the emerging market countries in a stable market consideration, take interventions in the currency market to curb the way local currency in the developed countries of the currency appreciation, global currency dispute have upgraded to the possibility of global currency war. Exchange rate of war is essentially the world to the behind global competition for the final demand. Before the outbreak of the us subprime mortgage crisis, U.S. residents department through the borrow too much for global provide the final demand. After the cheap new era hats crisis, as the U.S. residents to leveraged, global marked atrophy of the final demand. The developed countries want to put their final demand at home, but the emerging market countries still want to in developed countries in final demand a slice of this action. This final demand for global is global currency war and trade war risk the root cause of the highlights.
Second, the exchange rate of the yuan itself in 2010 presented the characteristics of how different from the past? Especially secondary yuan reform of before and after contrast. International hot money the character of the flow rate and what relation?
In the first half of 2010, the yuan in essence a dollar peg, and follow to other international currency $fluctuations. On June 19, 2010, central Banks restart the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. So far, the nominal exchange rate appreciation against the dollar is nearly 3%. Attract hot money flows of the main factors including spreads, exchange rate appreciation expectations and the asset price premium expected. The exchange rate of the yuan appreciation expectations in them a really play role, but is not the most important factor.
Three, looking to next year, the exchange rate of the yuan face internal and external environment of each will appear what new situation? Facing this situation, you have the prospect of RMB exchange rate have any expectations?
From the outside environment to see, the yuan will be face greater appreciation pressure, at the same time, China's exports will face more and more trade friction, the reason is that the developed countries by local currency devaluation and the government tried to import restrictions to improve the balance of the trade, and promote economic growth. From the internal environment to see, in order to curb the international energy, food, metal and other commodity price rises for China's economic form of input type inflation pressure, the Chinese government exists through the appreciation of the renminbi to curb the power of the input type inflation. If there were no incidents, next year to the dollar may rise about 5% of the nominal exchange rate.
Four, RMB internationalization in 2010 also take bigger step, including cross-border trade RMB pilot further expansion, the Hong Kong market construction and offshore yuan backflow mechanism to Wholesale baseball hats further explore, in addition, more currency can be in the inter bank foreign exchange market for trading. How do you see the RMB internationalization process in this year's a boost? The RMB exchange rate mechanism for the formation of the up what function?
RMB internationalization, especially the yuan cross-border trade settlement scale in 2010 a sharp increase, this is a very important results. But, we also have to see, in cross-border trade growth in, main is to import trade is growing rapidly. There is significant in the RMB appreciation background, who are willing to be RMB assets party, who is not willing to be RMB debtors. This means that, in the RMB exchange rate mechanism is a more flexible, and RMB the forward rate market before more developed, cross-border trade settlement of the yuan is still "asymmetric" prosperity. Can say, the propulsion of RMB internationalization objectively will DaoBi reform of the RMB exchange rate regime.
Five, the central bank had several top emphasis "effective exchange rate" concept, so what is your opinion?
Emphasizing the effective exchange rate is very correct. Effective exchange rate is to point to the yuan to a basket of currencies exchange rate. Judge exchange rate is imbalance, basically be to see effective exchange rate and the bilateral exchange rate. In order to stabilize the foreign trade growth, it is important to maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate, rather than the yuan to the dollar exchange rate stability. Because the present China's export markets has significant diversification, in this context, the emphasis on the concept of effective exchange rate is to keep pace with The Times.
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